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Championship run-in: Leeds or Ipswich - who will join title winners Leicester in Premier League?

Last updated on .From the section Championshipcomments492

A graphic showing Che Adams of Southampton, Crysencio Summerville of Leeds, Kieran McKenna of Ipswich and Kieran Dewsbury-Hall of Leicester
Leicester City secured the first automatic promotion spot, and the Championship title

Leicester City won the Championship title with victory at Preston on Monday as they made a swift return to the Premier League.

That leaves Leeds and Ipswich level on points as they bid to join the Foxes in the top flight.

Ipswich have a game in hand, knowing four points from their final two games will secure automatic promotion.

Southampton are now destined for the play-offs following their home defeat by Stoke.

BBC Sport examines the run-in and the Opta predictions.

Current table

TeamPlayedPointsGDGSForm (past 5 games)
1. Leicester45975089LLWWW
2. Leeds45903980LDLWL
3. Ipswich44903288WLDDD
4. Southampton45842385WWLLL

What are the remaining fixtures for each club?

DateIpswichLeicesterLeedsSouthampton
30 AprilCoventry (a)
4 MayHuddersfield (h)Blackburn (h)Southampton (h)Leeds (a)

Who are the favourites?

Opta, with its 10,000 'supercomputer' simulations, has Ipswich as favourites to secure the second automatic promotion spot, with Kieran McKenna's side given a 65% chance of automatic promotion.

Leeds' fate is out of their own hands because of Ipswich having a game in hand, which is reflected in them being given a 35% chance of finishing runners-up to the Foxes.

Opta predicts the top three will all finish with more than 90 points. No side has managed that and failed to be promoted in the past 10 seasons.

"The league is spectacular and you're a fool if you try and predict it because there's been so many twists and turns," former Ipswich and Luton striker Sam Parkin told BBC Radio 5 Live.

Former Hull, Derby and Bolton manager Phil Brown said: "It is all about bottle and the pressure. It is all about being able to handle that as a group and club."

What if the teams finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then goal difference in head-to-head games, before goals scored in those games.

If all of that is level we go to number of wins, then goals scored in away games.

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492 comments

  • Comment posted by dlions, at 11:17 17 Apr

    Wow, the BBC suddenly taking an interest in leagues which aren't the premier League????? Strange............

    • Reply posted by Metro1962, at 11:31 17 Apr

      Metro1962 replied:
      So true.

  • Comment posted by Hales Owen, at 11:53 17 Apr

    Play off system remains unfair. 3rd shd be automatic finalists with 5th vs 6th playing at 5th’s ground in a one off for right to play 4th at 4th’s ground also in a one off. This gives us our two finalists and rewards season’s performance in the process.

    • Reply posted by England Spurs, at 12:05 17 Apr

      England Spurs replied:
      nonsense

  • Comment posted by Catman, at 10:53 17 Apr

    As a Leeds fan, of course it would be great to go back up first time. But whoever gets there will thoroughly deserve it. It's been a brilliant battle all season.

    • Reply posted by Mr and Mrs Banks, at 14:45 17 Apr

      Mr and Mrs Banks replied:
      After watching Leeds struggle last week, I think the last thing they need is promotion... Club needs a re-build.

  • Comment posted by footiefan81, at 10:49 17 Apr

    Think every neutral will be routing for Ipswich. Nice to see that despite Premier League money and parachute payments resulting in clubs yo-yoing, a club can piece together a team under a good manager and break the monopoly. As the article eludes, all are stuttering under the pressure. Southampton, who looked out of it, look to have the momentum. Fascinating final few weeks coming up.

    • Reply posted by Blox, at 11:02 17 Apr

      Blox replied:
      The down side of that conclusion is, will the Ipswich board back McKenna with a hefty new contract to ward off interest from others ( and there are several ) ?

  • Comment posted by theknife, at 10:26 17 Apr

    My recurring nightmare is Ipswich finishing third and getting beat by Norwich in the play-offs!

    • Reply posted by Alex Moss, at 10:32 17 Apr

      Alex Moss replied:
      It’s almost written in the stars!

  • Comment posted by a_gunoi_be_spuma, at 11:38 17 Apr

    Leeds fan. We've thrown our chances of auto promotion away and I'll dread the play-offs. The flip side of not going up will mean an exciting season in the Championship again....I won't be gutted if we don't go up cos all we'd be doing is fighting relegation. Good luck to all 4 teams 👍

    • Reply posted by andy76, at 15:01 17 Apr

      andy76 replied:
      I'm a Saints fan and I feel the same way - we'd suffer every week in the Premier League next season

  • Comment posted by Ricardo Ron, at 10:09 17 Apr

    Ipswich hopefully will go up. Be hilarious if Leicester missed out

    • Reply posted by Blox, at 10:59 17 Apr

      Blox replied:
      I know , Opta Shmopta nonsense. The tractors have been more consistent in the whole season and will rightly be promoted. Whether that will be as champions is in the lap of the gods.

  • Comment posted by Scudley, at 10:18 17 Apr

    Leeds and Saints on the last day will be a cracking game.

    • Reply posted by bensondog, at 13:08 17 Apr

      bensondog replied:
      unless things are decided before then and then could have one of the teams playing a massively understrengthed side saving players for plays off which could then affect other teams chances

  • Comment posted by Trader88, at 11:34 17 Apr

    Still see Leicester and Ipswich as the top 2 getting promoted, then Southampton coming through in the play offs. Mind you, promotion to the completely biased Prem and week in, week out struggles against teams who are funded beyond recognition, isn't something I really hanker over

    • Reply posted by Perry Taine, at 15:55 17 Apr

      Perry Taine replied:
      In your second sentence, you speak for many, many fans!

  • Comment posted by SFC_fan, at 11:03 17 Apr

    As a Saints fan I can't call it. While Ipswich and Leicester have the points on the board and occupy the top 2, Saints are the only team with any momentum right now. The Cardiff game on Saturday is massive. With Ipswich not playing at all and Leeds not playing until Monday it's a big opportunity to apply even more pressure. Going to be an epic finish to the season.

    • Reply posted by Ali Baba, at 18:40 17 Apr

      Ali Baba replied:
      I'm surprised OPTA has firmly decided saints won't reach 90, two wins and their forecast is blown away

      seem to be keen on odd points totals, only foxes 7 seem anything but predicting lots of draws

  • Comment posted by The moose, at 10:51 17 Apr

    Whoever comes up is welcome to participate in the ‘just here to make the numbers up’ mini league featuring the teams in the bottom eight of the table. Eight wins for palace of which 4 against the absolutely dreadful bottom two. Never going to change as the gulf getting bigger each year.

    • Reply posted by simianmike, at 11:07 17 Apr

      simianmike replied:
      I mean, one look a the league table and position/points of Wolves, Bournemouth, Fulham and Brighton proves you instantly wrong.

  • Comment posted by Dorbien, at 10:15 17 Apr

    Leeds hitting the worst form of the 4 currently.

    • Reply posted by digital dg, at 11:59 17 Apr

      digital dg replied:
      Leeds struggles have generally been against teams who just come to dig in as both Sunderland and Blackburn did in the last couple of games. I don't see Boro or Southampton (or QPR for that matter) doing that which probably gives Leeds more of a chance that if they were playing more defensive teams.

  • Comment posted by digital dg, at 11:50 17 Apr

    To be fair to Ipswich they have been the most consistent side all through the season and I expect them to get automatic promotion. The other 3 teams have gone on long unbeaten runs but they've also had big wobbles at the end of those runs. Southampton seem to be hitting form at the right time and I think their games at Leicester and Leeds will ultimately decide the order the top 4 finishes in.

    • Reply posted by solidsponge, at 17:59 17 Apr

      solidsponge replied:
      But Leicester will be top if they win their game in hand, so if we go by consistency, right now Leicester are the most consistent on games and points yeh? 42 games, 88 points. Ipswich are 43 games 89 points. That is not more consistent.

  • Comment posted by GPrize, at 10:43 17 Apr

    Would love to see Ipswich get up.

    Couldn’t care who else really but would be funny to see Leicester fail having been walking it for so long!

  • Comment posted by mark, at 11:05 17 Apr

    Ipswich & Southampton for automatic, West Brom in the playoffs. I just did a mini-lottery for that, have absolutely no idea 🤣 Whatever happens it sure has been a rollercoaster & a hell of a ride.

  • Comment posted by eddiegraysdribble, at 11:30 17 Apr

    I've been expecting Ipswich to blow up for what seems like forever, but fair play to them they haven't. They play without fear n the shoot on sight policy is reaping the rewards. Sadly, my team are blowing up when it matters most and that's pressure on the shirt and some strange selection subs/timings of late....think Ipswich and Leicester will do it and leeds can only look back on a lost opp

    • Reply posted by Gobber51, at 12:56 17 Apr

      Gobber51 replied:
      This is the Ipswich that haven't won for three matches!?

  • Comment posted by theknife, at 10:25 17 Apr

    Tractor Boys and any of the other three. It’s been an incredible season for Ipswich.

  • Comment posted by dlions, at 11:25 17 Apr

    Interesting to see that out of the top 6, 5 of them are the highest spending clubs in the division. Therefore, I hope Ipswich win the title. They've spent a fraction of what these other teams have spent. Well done!

    • Reply posted by Albion1878, at 16:31 17 Apr

      Albion1878 replied:
      Well, here's one for you! West Bromwich Albion have spent next to nothing! Beat that!

  • Comment posted by yeah_but_no_but, at 11:29 17 Apr

    As a Cov fan I'm almost glad that we're not going up as it is a brilliant league! For me, I think Leeds and Leicester will just scrape it, hoping Ipswich can do it though!

    • Reply posted by Saint Delia, at 12:03 17 Apr

      Saint Delia replied:
      Could be right, but even the projected points differences remain very small (3 points from 1st-3rd) and there's a lot of competitive games to play in there including against each other. Small margins will decide this.

  • Comment posted by Wombat_LCFC, at 11:56 17 Apr

    After two consecutive weekends of surprizing results and very few points, the top-3 are getting into 'last chance saloon' territory.
    Leicester start the weekend games with early kick off at home to WBA. If we can earn a win in this feisty local derby that would crank up the pressure on Leeds & Ipswich. Foxes ;game in hand' is vs Saints next Tuesday, so a real 6-pointer.
    Bring it on!!!

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